This is the debut of a monthly article the RoR Rountable. Here’s how the article works. Jeff, PTown and myself will all answer the same Rays question. The readers (you guys) are encouraged to answer the question yourself in a comment. Here it goes.

Who will be the key player for the Rays in 2009 and why?

PTownFan’s Pick:

Remember the Hot Stove season two years ago? Rays fans had “catcher” at the top of their non-negotiable off season list.  Jarrod Saltiamaccia was considered by many to be an affordable upgrade over Dioner Navarro given the team’s ridiculous payroll constraints.  Even after a strong second half in 2007, much of the Hot Stove chatter last year centered around whether Navi would regress to the mean in 2008.  It was just too hard to believe that Ned Coletti’s cast-off could become the glue that held a surprising Rays break-out team together over the course of a long and improbable season.  Navi did just that, picking up where he left off in 2007 and swapping the “Fat Catcher” moniker for “All Star” along the way. Let me make a case for Dioner Navarro’s respectable though probably not dazzling stats, combined with his intangible leadership qualities, making him the Rays’ Key Player in 2009.

1)       His pitchers have come to trust him behind the plate.  Navi knows the staff, he calls a great game, and until his hamstrings began to take a pounding during the dog days of summer, he was a rock defensively. Maddon told him to learn his job or face the music. He made no excuses. He didn’t shrink from the challenge. He embraced it. Navi didn’t want to fail and equally, he wanted to prove Ned Coletti wrong for jettisoning him in favor of Russell Martin. 

2)       His teammates not only trust him with a bat (save for maybe Carl Crawford) they’ve come to expect a clutch hit from him in key situations. Off to a dismal start in 2007 he changed his approach. In fact, he changed too much too often and got worse before he got better, but one lucky hunch was picking up teammate Greg Norton’s bat. The change helped him keep the ball out of the air and use the whole field. Prior to the ‘07 All Star Break, a 2-on-2-out situation with Navi coming to the plate had much of the Trop’s paltry crowd hailing the beer vendor to dull the inevitable pain.  Navi showed in 2008 that what he lacks in pure power, he more than compensates for with situational hitting. From both sides of the plate. With that new bat, his .314 RISP led all Rays regulars in 2008. His .295 average would have landed him on the position leader board, but for costly plate appearances of a DL stint. As the months went on, somehow you just knew that Navi would bloop a liner over an infielder’s head or burn their shoelaces driving one through at least once a game. His home runs may be few, but they’re memorable.

3)       He has earned the fans’ respect as a team leader.  The Rays had emerged atop the AL standings in April and May. The world was waiting for them to implode in June. The Garza incident was a coming out party of sorts for Navi’s new found leadership role.  Skeptical fans thought it was only a matter of time before Matt Garza started up with the Mr. Moody antics that made him easy for Minneapolis to trade. Matt kept it together pretty well for the first few months of the season, but flared the trademark temper in the dugout during the Texas series in June. Navi took him on in a televised shoving match.  It was a pivotal moment for the 2008 Rays, symbolizing the No “I” in “Team” approach that was beginning to define them.

4)       He earned the respect of baseball.  Red Sox Manager Terry Francona named Navarro to the 2008 All Star team while many waited for Navi to crash back to earth. At the time, he ranked first in the AL with a 38.1 percent caught stealing percentage, a .998 fielding percentage, and the third-best staff ERA in the majors (3.60). His .318 batting average was second among AL regulars. Navi ended up carrying the position’s biggest load both offensively and defensively as the third and final catcher during the memorable 15 inning game. He showed he was no fluke.

5)       Pudgito made lemonade out of lemons.  Navi’s trade to Tampa Bay had a silver lining. The opportunity to be home. Dioner’s wife had recovered from a cerebral aneurysm that doctors gave her only a 5% chance of surviving. His family escaped major injury in a hit-and-run rollover accident shortly after the trade and his infant son had a kidney removed in September 2006. Not surprisingly, he came to camp out of shape in 2007 and took a pounding from the press and from the team.  Adversity only seemed to make him tougher as he set out to prove everyone wrong. 2008 tested him again. His mother also suffered a cerebral aneurysm and Navarro sliced two fingers on his throwing hand as grabbed a net to break a fall in the New York Visitors’ dugout in April. Following that short DL stint, he played nearly every game until his hammies began to ache in August, no doubt contributing to his less than stellar base running stats.  When backup catcher Shawn Riggans ended up on the DL late in the season, Navi gutted out a grueling post season schedule. Even a worn out Navarro managed a .293 playoff average. Now that’s tough.

At the ripe old age of 25, the Rays have a veteran catcher with playoff experience, boxes full of those new bats, and a seasoned pitching staff. Look out for the 2009 Rays and Dioner Navarro, the glue that will keep them together as they bask in the glow of their American League Championship. And try not to fry under the heat lamp of their first World Series.

Jeff’s Pick:

My pick for the player to watch in 2009 is David Price.  This is going to be a compare-and-contrast between the previous two years’ young, up-and-coming pitching phenoms.

Joba Chamberlain was drafted in 2006 out of Nebraska, first round (#41 pick), and jumped to the big leagues as a late callup in 2007, burning the league as the Yankees’ setup man.  He pitched 24 IP in 19 games, striking out 34, walking only six and giving up just one earned run—a homer on September 16, which led to a win.  He finished with a 2-0 record, a save and 8 holds.

Then came the 2007 American League Division Series.  He came in with an out in the seventh on Game 2, and preserved a 1-0 lead as the Yankees tried to equalize the series.  Then came the eighth inning.  A freak of nature on an unusually warm Cleveland night: mosquitoes swarmed the field, especially Joba.  The result: Joba cracks.  He gives up a leadoff four-pitch walk to Grady Sizemore, then a wild pitch, a sac bunt and a second wild pitch allow Sizemore to score.  Joba blows the save, the Yankees lose the game, and ultimately lose the series in four games.

When I saw him throw that fateful second wild pitch, I thought to myself: “This is the kind of experience that makes or breaks careers before they start.”

He came back in 2008, and ultimately wound up starting.  He put up good numbers, including a 2.76 ERA in his 12 starts, but with the Yankees’ anemic offense, he got unlucky, with decisions few and far between: just 3-1 as a starter.  A rotator cuff injury resulted in him taking August off, and by the time he got back in September, he was relegated back to setup, with the Yankees already hopelessly out of the playoff picture behind the resurgent Red Sox and the surprising Rays.

And the connection comes to David Price.  Drafted #1 in 2007 out of Vanderbilt by the Rays, he rose quickly through the minor-league ranks.  He was brought up in time to be eligible for a potential postseason run, but was used sparingly.  He gave up 3 ER in 14 IP, 12 K to 4 BB, with a start on September 22 where he went 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER and 4 hits for no decision.

He wasn’t called up for the postseason until the 2008 ALCS.  He played in four games.  He cleaned up the mess in the 9^th as a power outage led to a Game 1 loss.  Then he held on in the 11^th inning of Game 2 to get his first major league victory.  He didn’t come back until Game 7, when he came into the game with a 3-1 lead, but the bases loaded with two outs in the bottom of the 8th.  He struck out J.D. Drew.  Then in the 9^th, after a leadoff walk to Jason Bay (eight pitches, great battle), he struck out Mark Kotsay and Jason Varitek, then made Jed Lowrie ground out to Aki to clinch the Rays’ first World Series berth.

In the World Series, he appeared in Game 2 and Game 4.  He gave up a run to screw up a shutout in the 8^th inning of Game 2 (he had a 4-0 lead, we won 4-2), but other than that he did another fine job in a valiant losing effort.

The front office has such confidence in him, that he has been penciled in as a starter to begin 2009.  Of course, a lot of things can change.  But we’ll see if his experience leads to success in his true rookie season.  We’ll come back at the end of 2009 and compare Price’s rookie season to Joba’s.

My Pick:

My pick for the 2009 Key player is BJ Upton. Bossman Junior played most of the season with a torn labrum, which limited his power numbers. He only hit nine homers last season, as opposed to the 25 bombs he had in the 2007 campaign. 

This proved to be BJ’s breakout year, even without his power element. Beej showed that he can be a key factor without his power. He put up a good average at .273 and showed that the Rays have more than one option on the basepaths than CC. Upton stole more bases than Crawford this year with 44 robberies.

BJ had his moments this year. His head was not in the game and even got benched for it. BJ got his head back in the game and hustled again, and did not jepordize the pennant race.

He got back to the Upton we saw in ‘07 just in time for the playoffs. He found his power stroke and blew away most. BJ jacked a total of 7 bombs by the end of the postseason. He was outshined by Longo, who set the record for homers in a postseason by a rookie.

Upton recently got that shoulder patched up and he should be ready by the start of next season. This means that he can get back to his normal self so watch out for BJ in the 2009 season.

As I have mentioned before, I have had a lot of time to think since the Rays have done nothing but make roster moves and lose a key piece of the bullpen. I know I wrote an article similar to this earlier in the offseason, but I have a few new pieces.

Right field options:

By Trade:

Hunter Pence RF Hou: I have always liked Pence. He has a great combination of power, speed and contact and is a decent fielder. He had an off year last year and may not cost as much due to that. He is a young option and would go great in the 2nd or 5th place in the lineup. We might be able to land him for Jeff Niemann and Ried Brignac since they have n older Tejada at short. We may need to give up one maybe two lower end prospects as well. Not a bad price for a great outfielder like Pence. Acquisition grade: A-

Jeff Francour RF Atl: Francour is a great young player. The only problem is that the only good year he had was his rookie year. He’s not done too well since. He may just need a change in uniform and a better team to start him back up. He would take less of a package than Pence would since he is a lesser quality player. He has great skills, he just needs to figure out how to use them. We may be able to land him for Mitch Talbot and Justin Ruggiano if we can convince the Braves GM like we did last year in the Willy Aybar trade that proved to be very very one sided.  Grade: B+ if we can get him at a low cost.

By Free Agency:

Adam Dunn OF: Dunn would be the prolific power hitter our team has been looking for. He would be perfect next to Pena. The only problem is Dunn strikes out a lot. Pena does not. He hits for a low average which is not what you would want on a very fast team like the Rays because the Rays can run themselves into scoring position and you would have Dunn up to get them right out of it. Dunn is a slow outfielder and may be best fit for a DH. He would be a very pricey DH when we have Willy Aybar who could do as good if not better since he is a switch hitter and Aybar hits for great average and could hit 25-30 homers if he played a full season. Grade:C- He is not good enough at fielding and would eat a ton of salary.

Raul Ibanez OF: Ibanez is entering the last stages of his career but he is still producing. Last season he had a .293 average and 23 homers. He would be exactly what we are looking for at the plate. He would be a great contact hitter for us. He is iffy in the outfield but would be better than Dunn. Grade: B- Ibanez would provide exactly what we are looking for and would be a great clubhouse presence.

Designated Hitters:

By free agency:

Jason Giambi DH: Giambi is an older player at 38, but because of this he would likely not make as much money as he did with the Yankees. I know what your thinking, why would we hire a former beloved Yankee? Because he would fill a void and would be a good presence. He hits for power like we need. Grade: C

Milton Bradley DH: Bradley is coming off a great year last year with the Rangers. He hits 30-35 homers and can hit for a good average. he is only 31 and could play the outfield if we absolutley needed it as an emergency last outfielder basis. Grade: B

Closers

By Free Agency:

I only have one more since I covered most in the last article.

Chad Cordero CP: Cordero is coming off surgery and has been somewhat injury prone since he begun his career. He would likely start as a middle reliever and if he is good move into the closers role. We would not need to pay him much at all and he has been a great closer for the Nats in the past. Grade C

The Rays are off to their usual ridiculously slow start to the offseason. All they’ve accomplished so far is they have released a great bullpen guy in Trever Miller, and added three to the 40 man.

I have gotten a lot of time to think since there is no Rays news to talk about. It is time to play “If You Were Andrew Friedman” The rules are simple. If you could make one offseason move, what would it be and why. Tell me what you think in a comment. I will pick the winner by who I think has the best case and makes the best move. The winner will get bragging rights. Remember: The move has to be realistic to OUR salary. You cannot say we need to sign CC Sabathia or K-Rod because we cannot afford them.

It is as simple as that. Send me some love.

Here is a list of some articles I have coming up.

I will have a list of offseason moves I think should be made.

i will have the prospects to watch in pitching and hitting.

The Rays top prospect spotlight.

The first Rise of the Rays Roundtable: a monthly article where all of the writers are asked a question. You guys can respond to the questions as well in the comments. I will have more on this article when it debuts this weekend.

2008 Picture of The Year

Player spotlights: A new series of articles on the important players for next year.

Gives you something to look forward to.

There has been a lot going around that the Rays could be interested in Milton Bradley. He would be the DH we would be looking for and unlike Cliff Floyd, he can play outfield. I think he is just what he is looking for. He hits for power. He hits for contact.

The St. Pete Times is bringing up Albert Whitted Airport as a possible ballpark site.  Nobody in the Rays org has seriously entertained this.

From what I understand, the idea of doing anything with Albert Whitted Airport besides an airport is extremely touchy.  As someone who doesn’t live in St. Pete, I think I can look at it objectively.

Read the rest of this entry »

Three Rays players earned votes in the American League MVP balloting!

Carlos Peña received 44 MVP votes, good for ninth place.  Evan Longoria received 38 points, good for 11th place.  And Jason Bartlett’s single fifth-place vote was good for six points and 18th place.

MVP placement is marked at Baseball Reference, and goes toward the ultimate synthetic player benchmark: B-R’s Hall of Fame Monitor.

Peña got one third-place vote, which is more than we can say for Alex Rodriguez, whose highest vote was a fifth-place vote, even though he finished eighth with 47 points.

The Rays have fired Kelly Frank, who plays Raymond, for no apparent reason.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays/

Performer Kelly Frank, the woman who perfected Raymond’s trademark butt shimmy, said she does not know why she was fired Monday after five seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays.

“I’m just as confused as everyone else,” she said. “I really didn’t get an explanation.”

Frank said she was praised as recently as three weeks ago, when her supervisors told her she out-enthused the Philadelphia Phillies mascot, the Phillie Phanatic, during the World Series.

Raymond was the best mascot in the league, and will be severely missed by any Rays fan who has seen her in person. Raymond will never be the same again.

In other Rays news, Rays color commentator Joe Magrane will be leaving his position in the Rays TV Booth for a job at MLB Network. Dewayne Staats and Magrane were one of the best teams in the league. It will be hard to split them up. Staats will likely remain. Brian Anderson is one candidate for the job. He filled in during the Olympics.

I know the second isn’t the Rays fault, bu

So, the story comes to us that the Rays are increasing most single-game ticket prices, including a new sub-premium “Marquee” price class for eleven Saturday games.  But they are including a steeper discount for season tickets, in hopes of drawing more seat contracts.

I am trying to piece together information as I can find it, as the comprehensive list of ticket prices isn’t anywhere yet, not even on the official site.  But it looks like the club seats are staying the same, while other seats are increasing anywhere from 5-10%.  The “marquee” price class is for eleven Saturday games, and will include the Summer Concert Series and a series of “premium” giveaways.

Currently what I have is that Upper Deck tickets will be $10 for regular, $13 for marquee and $16 for prime.  Lower Infield Box (the brown class on the main website seating chart) will be $55 for regular, $65 for marquee and $75 for prime.  Home Plate Club will be $210 for regular, $240 for marquee and $270 for prime.  Once I get all the info, I will post a table.

In other news, the tarps will stay, but Matt Silverman only said the capacity will be “close to” last year’s 36,048.  Hopefully it’s more like up from 36,048.  Hopefully the day will come when there will be an obstructed-view seat class.

Parking for cars with four or more occupants will still be free, but prices for others will go up–$15 for the main parking lots, $10 for the remote lots.  Tailgating and bringing outside food into Tropicana Field will still be permitted.

The same-day ticket surcharge introduced last year, charged for tickets bought within five hours of game time (the so-called “Yankee Tax”), will go up from a flat $2 across the board to a range of $3-$5.  So at-the-door prices for prime games will go anywhere from $19 for Upper Deck seats to $275 for the Home Plate Club.

There will be 21 prime games: The three series each with the Red Sox (4/30-5/3, 8/4-5, 9/1-3) and Yankees (4/13-15, 7/27-29, 10/2-4) AND our interleague home series against the Phillies (6/23-25).  I guarantee you the Phillies series would not be prime if they weren’t in the World Series.

The eleven marquee games are, essentially, any Saturday that isn’t already a prime game.

And they count 49 regular-price home games, so it looks like no Orlando series this year.

Matt Silverman was quoted as saying the team tried to peg the base upper deck seat price to the price of a movie ticket.

As for season tickets, the discount for those will range up to 35%.

There is a good quote here, from the St. Pete Times version of the article.

“Even if they were to raise mine a little bit, I wouldn’t have had an issue with it, knowing that they’re going to make the investment in the team,” said season ticket holder Ryan Lund, 31, a Tampa resident. “As a fan, if I thought they were going to pocket the profit and let the free agents go, I’d have a problem. But knowing they’re investing to give us a better product … I’m okay with it.“

Hopefully more people see it that way.

The Rays Organization is well represented in the Winter Leagues.  A dozen position players and ten pitchers are hitting and hurling in the Arizona, Dominican, Mexican Pacific, Puerto Rican, and Venezuelan Leagues.  Rise Of The Rays will keep you up to date… who is where, who’s hot, and who’s not.  

First, at look at the Arizona Fall League.Future posts will recap the Caribbean Leagues who are only about 15 games into their season, so we’ll let those stats ripen a bit. This recap is admittedly oversimplified, but for those who dig the nitty gritty, here’s a link to complete stats. 

Arizona Fall League (as of Friday, 11/14 – 24 games into the schedule):

• JT Hall (OF-A/AA, LHH): .243 avg and .635 OPS. His average tracks his AA performance, but his OBP and power numbers are off and his strikeout to walk ratio is still about 3:1.  Signed as a free agent in June, 2004.  $ games at AAA at the end of 2006.  2008 Florida State League mid-season All-Star.
• Rhyne Hughes (1B – AA, LHH): .394 avg/1.116 OPS. Significantly outperforming his regular season numbers. 2006 and 2007 Mid-Season All-Star.
• Desmond Jennings (OF – Vero, RHH):  .257 avg/ .776 OPS.  Jenning’s is tracking his regular season production. He has a high strikeout rate but only has 35 ABs. Was the Rays 10th pick of the 2006 June draft as is known for his base stealing.
• Matt Spring (C – AA, RHH):  .188 avg / .593 OPS significantly off his regular season numbers.  Was the Rays 4th round choice of the 2004 June draft.
• Chris Mason (RHP – AAA):  0-0 record / 10.8ERA / 12 games/ 11.2 IP.  Had a 3 and 10 regular season record with a 6.21 ERA.  Gave up a walk and two earned runs in a third of an inning in his last outing. Selected in the second round of the 2005 first year player draft.  Outstanding at A and AA levels.
• Ryan Reid (RHP – AA):0-2 record / 6.43 ERA / 10 games / 14 IP.  Had a regular season record of 5 and 4 at AA and a 3-0 record at Vero with a 4.66 ERA at AA in 46 IP.  Rays 7th round pick in the 2006 First Year Player draft.  Florida State League Mid-Season All Star.
• Wade Townsend (RHP-AA): 2-0 record / 8.44 ERA / 3 games / 10.2 IP.  Had a 1-2 record with a 7.66 ERA in 13 Games, 22.1 IP during the regular season.  The St. Pete Times is reporting that Townsend has injured his shoulder and will likely miss the entire 2009 season to rehab from a surgical repair. The Rays’ first round pick (8th overall) in 2005, missed the 2006 season following Tommy John surgery.  He was shutdown in 2007 with arm soreness and you have to wonder if the 27 year old can mount another come back.
• Michael Wlodarczyk (LHP-AA):2-2 record/5.68ERA/11 games/ 12.2 IP.  Fall Ball has been a boon for Michael. He was 0-4 with an 8.9 ERA in 10 games and 30.1 IP at AA and 4-1 at Vero Beach during the regular season. Rays 7th round pick in 2005. 2005 Princeton Pitcher of the year. 2006 Mid-Season All Star. Attended Boston College.

Check back next week for a recap of Rays playing in the Caribbean Leagues: Joel Guzman, Maiko Loyola, Jon Weber, Gabriel Martinez, Erold Andrus, John Jaso, Cesar Suarez, Jorge Velandia, Juan Salas, Heath Phillips, Dale Thayer, Chris Kelly, Eduardo Morlan, and Carlos Hernandez.  Guzman, Suarez, Morlan, Thayer and Kelly are off to good starts south of the border.

Here is the first of a 5 part series on a look ahead to next year. It will provide analysis as well as a prediction on how the staff will look.

The 2009 Rotation:

1. James Shields- Our only PROVEN ace (spot will likely be taken over by Price down the road)

2. Scott Kazmir

3. Matt Garza

4. David Price

5. Andy Sonnanstine

I give Andy the final spot because I expect E-Jax will be the one that will be traded. E-Jax is also better suited for a bullpen role in the event that the Rays can not find a suitor for him.

Shields has been clutch through his first two years with the big league team. He has been great and has outdueled some of the best, like Josh Beckett. I applaud Shields for this and I truly think before he ends his career, he will be on the All-Star team a few times and have a Cy Young on his mantle.

Kazmir has had his share of issues with injuries and pitch count. Hopefully, we will get to see Kaz in his true form in his first full season as a Ray.(No DL time) He needs to be working with Jim Hickey. Kaz could potentially be one of the best pitchers in the league if he could consistantly pitch 6 or 7 innings.

Garza has been awsome since his trade from the Twins. The human sprinkler throws absolute gas and gets people out.

3 words: Price is money. David Price was great as a reliever through the stretch and got his first career big league win while taking us to the win against the Red Sox for the ALCS. What a memory. I was there and he was just amazing to watch. Now we will get to see him in his comfort zone as a starter. He breezed through the minors low levels with little trouble but ran into his first speed bump in AAA. I do not look for this to be a problem. He was able to beat up on some of the best hitters like A-Rod and make him grab some bench. He got one of the best pitchers in his prime, Pedro Martinez, to say this when Price faced Martinez in a single A pitching duel:

“He’s amazing, that kid. He’s amazing,” Martinez said. “That kid is very mature for his time in [the pros], and very talented.

“Oh my God. God bless him and keep him healthy.”

He outdueled Pedro in a two to zero victory. Price pitched 6 shutout innings. Amazing. He was able to plow through major league batters with his gas in September and into the postseason.

Sorry, I said a ton about Price, but all needed to be said. I kinda turned this article into a review of Price. Oh well, he is our future ace (2010 in my opinion.)

Now onto Andy Sonnanstine. He is the best number five starter in the league. The Rays have something special with their rotation. Our worst starter had 13 wins last season. Sonnanstine was great. He doesn’t have any velocity, but mixes up pitches and arm slots and fools batters. I expect more of the same from him.

The Rays have one of the best rotations in baseball, and their oldest starter is Shields at 27. The Rays still have Wade Davis in the minors who will likely be up later in 2009 or at the start of 2010. He will take Andy’s spot.