Tonight, I will come up with five reasons why the Rays will be the top team in the American League in 2009:
(Sorry if that was short, I’m not good at long-winded, grandiose introductions.)
1) The Starting Rotation — Last year, we had one of the best all-around starting rotations in the American League. All of them were over .500, and only one pitcher had double-digit losses. No starter had an ERA over 4.5, and all had an ERA+ over 100. Our pitching staff as a whole gave up the second-fewest hits and the second-fewest runs, while issuing the second-most strikeouts.
And this was done with a Scott Kazmir that wasn’t healthy.
With the coming-of-age of Matt Garza, the return to good health for Kaz, and the rise of David Price (who will take Edwin Jackson’s place in the rotation), we will continue to have the most consistent rotation in the the majors. We have at least four good, reliable starting pitchers (can’t say that yet about Price, he’s a rookie). No other team in the American League can say that. Not even the Yankees, for all the money they blew on C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.
We’ll compare to the A.L. East for example:
The Yankees have C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. A.J. Burnett has a bad history of arm trouble. Chien-Ming Wang is coming off a foot injury that ended his season, and could possibly change him as a player. Joba Chamberlain may not even start, and if he does, has durability issues. And you can forget about Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes.
The Red Sox have Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Daisuke Matsuzaka is a pitcher of extremes–either he’s on, or he’s out in the first inning. Buchholz and Masterson are not panning out. Wakefield’s knuckler has been solved. And Schilling will never be the same after his botched shoulder injury last year.
The Blue Jays have Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch. They lost Burnett. McGowan and Marcum flap in the breeze. And good pitching means nothing if you can’t get them run support. Halladay is on pace for the MLB record for complete game losses.
The Orioles have Jeremy Guthire and Mark Hendrickson. When Mark Hendrickson is your second-best starter going into camp, you’re in for yet another long year.
If Kaz is healthy, Garza continues to play like he did in the ALCS, and David Price turns out to be even half of what we think he is, our starting rotation will be better than it was last year. I would take five above-average pitchers over two superstars and three or more scrubs.
2) Dioner Navarro — Last year was the year Navi put it all together, and we really got a sample of it in the second half of 2007, when he hit .285 after the break. This past year he hit .295 and only struck out only 49 times in 120 games. Fielding-wise, he cut his errors down to 5, and only allowed 45 stolen bases (71 last year), catching 28 would-be base stealers. He also showed his maturity as a game manager (especially when Garza started listening to him). I believe a lot of our success this year in the pitching department has to do with Navarro calling games. At 25, and not bothered by chronic injury, there is absolutely no reason to believe he will decline this year, or any time in the near future.
3) Solidified RF and DH — Last year, our weaknesses were at RF and DH. Although we got clutch hits from Cliff Floyd and Gabe Gross, the positions just did not bat very well last year. RF and DH were two of our three lowest BAs (.246 and .244, respectively), had terrible K/BB ratios, and had the fewest stolen bases. Now, we have Matt Joyce and Pat Burrell, respectively.
Matt Joyce is going to be a sophomore this season, so he’s got very little to go on by numbers. But if the trade for Garza and Bartlett is any indication, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be a contributor to the club. Although his average last year was .256, his OPS was .831, not a bad number for a rookie. He committed one error in 25 games. Stretched out over a season, that would equal our amount for the position last year (6), which is pretty good. Turning 25 in May, he has plenty of years ahead of him to further develop.
Pat Burrell has been the unsung hero of the Phillies. He’s had an OPS over .800 the past five years, over .870 the past four. He’s walked over 100 times the past two years. He’s had 29 or more homers the past four years. And if Carl Crawford ails, he’s a capable outfielder–last year was his best fielding year ever, with only 2 errors in 155 games in LF. At 32, his two-year contract will fall on the exact prime of his career.
4) Batting Depth — This is our projected starting lineup for the main part of the season, after the week B.J. misses finishing up his shoulder rehab (no particular order, just positional):
C – Navarro
1B – Peña
2B – Iwamura
SS – Bartlett
3B – Longoria
LF – Crawford
CF – Upton
RF – Joyce
DH – Burrell
If Crawford goes out, he can be replaced by Burrell, and Gross can DH. Fernando Perez can cover Upton. Gabe Gross can cover Joyce. Longoria can move to SS, and Aybar can cover 3B. Ben Zobrist can contribute at most positions. And we have Shawn Riggans and John Jaso behind Navarro at C. And this doesn’t even count most of our farmhands, including Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac and Justin Ruggiano.
The Rays will be alright should there be the occasional injury bug.
5) A Healthy B.J. Upton — It is now established that Upton has been playing the past few seasons with a bum shoulder. This offseason, he finally had his labrum repaired. Although he may miss the first week of the season finishing rehab, if the postseason was any indication, he may already be on his way to being the player he has the promise to be. He had half as many errors as the previous year, so he’s definitely found his position.
Tomorrow night, you will get five reasons why the Rays won’t be the top team in the American League.