1. Where will the Rays find more offense? You have to figure that if they are going to add any top-name players, it would most likely be via a trade.  The Rays will not be big players in the free agent market.  But, they have a well-stocked farm system to use in trying to find more power, perhaps at the first base and designated hitter positions.
2. Is BJ Upton part of the team when Spring Training opens? I’ll guess no (see question one).  I think BJ Upton will be a key component to any trade that might bring offense at positions the Rays need help with.  The Rays have options in center field.  The amount of money the Rays would have to pay BJ just might be passing his value to the team.  It’s time for him to move on.
3. Where does Matt Moore begin the season? Ok.  I’ll answer this one with a question.  How could he not start the season with the Rays?  While the sample is small, Moore showed in just one game that he’s ready for just about anything.  There’s no bigger stage than to throw game one of the ALDS and produce results as he did.  Most certainly, the Rays will have to monitor his progress.  But, finding a place in the rotation for him is essential.
4. If Matt Moore stays, who goes? This one could get interesting, and have a tie-in to question one.  Would the Rays use James Shields as trade bait to get that offense?  Maybe, if the deal is as good as the one they pulled off for Matt Garza last year.  Jeff Niemann could easily go. For me, I liked what I saw of Wade Davis in the bullpen.  I’d be interested in seeing him play a late-inning role with the Rays over the next several seasons.
5. Will the Rays play the free agent game? The Rays only have a few players available on the free agent market.  Of those, I’ll guess that Johnny Damon stays and Casey Kotchman and Juan Cruz go.  Damon clearly would like to see his career end close to his Orlando home.  He proved to be a good fit for the Rays and showed that he still has some offense left in his bat.  Kotchman, on the other hand, I think will go where the money is.  But, it’s unclear whether his defensive skills can out-weigh his lack of power and make him a first baseman that other teams covet.

As far as the Rays obtaining free agents, it’s fairly safe to say they will not be big spenders.  They will most likely look for role players who fit needs that they have, perhaps in the bullpen and bench depth.  If the Rays want to make things interesting, bringing back Carlos Pena or bringing in career Yankee Jorge Posada would be fun.    But, if you think that’s too much of a gamble, you might try this Sports Betting Website.

The Rays have a great chance to build around their talented young core to make a run at the championship next season. With Evan Longoria, Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings, and David Price, the Rays have a great young core that could make a run to the championship with the right pieces around them.

We are starting an offseason preview series of posts taking a look at the upcoming make-or-break offseason. First, we will take a look at the expiring contracts and whether or not the Rays will try to bring them back. More after the jump.

The Pending Free Agents

• Kelly Shoppach- The recent ALDS game 1 hero is one of the Rays is one of the Rays expiring contracts this offseason. He has had a sucky past two seasons under the current contract, so it would be a complete surprise if they bring him back. He does have a $3.2 million club option, but with a $300,000 buyout it would be hard to believe if they don’t let him go.
• Kyle Farnsworth- Kyle Farnsworth had an amazing season as the Rays closer. Farnsworth by far had his best season as a big leaguer,  posting a 2.18 ERA and saving 25 games for the Rays. he does have a $3.3 million option for next year with a $650,000 buyout. I would love to see the Rays pick up his option and bring him back while they try to find and groom their next closer. I just don’t see anybody from within that is ready to step into a closer role right now, so I think it would be great to bring Farnsworth back as they continue their search.
• Johnny Damon- Johnny Damon probably has the most interesting situation of them all. I think the Rays would love to bring him back, but there is almost no chance they would pay him the $5.25 million they paid him this season. He is great for the team as a veteran presence in an otherwise younger clubhouse and he is a local guy, residing in the Orlando area. The question is whether or not they can get him to take a discount to play for the Rays again. His production was slightly down this year, but that is to be expected from a guy who is 37 years old. His production was still pretty good, but I don’t know if it is good enough to be an every day DH in the AL East anymore. We will see if they resign him and what his role would be with the Rays.
• Juan Cruz- Juan Cruz proved to be a good reliever as a flier this year. He came into the year with severe injury problems, missing all but 5 games in the 2010 season. The Rays did what they do best, taking a flier on him with a minor league contract in February. The signing paid off, as Cruz had a good season, collecting a 3.88 ERA in 48.2 innings as a 7th or 8th inning guy for Joe Maddon. I don’t think the Rays will bring Cruz back as he might be a little to expensive considering they have other players who can take similar roles in the bullpen.
• Joel Peralta- Peralta, along with Farnsworth, was one of the bigger additions to the bullpen last offseason. He signed a relatively cheap contract for the Rays, a one year deal at $925,000. Not bad considering he became Joe Maddon’s main setup man. Peralta posted a 2.93 ERA for the Rays with 19 holds and 6 saves in 67.2 innings. Peralta was a great guy to come in to get to Kyle Farnsworth this season and was even a good fill in when Farnsworth was unavailable. Peralta will probably pull a Joaquin Benoit from last season and sign with another team for way more than the Rays have to offer. Peralta would be great to have back, but I doubt it is a possibility for the small market Rays. I guess they will just have to take another flier or acquire somebody in a trade to fill that role.
• Casey Kotchman- Kotchman was the offensive risk of the year for the Rays, posting his best season as a big leaguer with his hometown Rays. He had a .306 average with 1o homers as the Rays everyday first baseman. His defense also proved valuable, making 2 errors all season and having a .998 fielding percentage. Kotchman is not the prototypical first baseman, as he is all average and no power and for that reason I don’t think the Rays will bring him back. The Rays are currently a power-starved offense, so they definitely need a guy with a bit more pop from first base. Kotchman was great, but I just don’t think he fits in with what the Rays need. Hopefully they can get somebody either through trade or free agency that has a bit better of a power bat for first base.

It will certainly be a busy offseason for the Rays, and it all starts off with the expiring contracts and what to do. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, but in the end, I see them only keeping Damon and Farnsworth. Farnsworth is a no brainer with his team-friendly option and Damon can still be a good bat for the Rays, but maybe in a lesser role.

Not being able to hold onto Carl Crawford was a letdown, and ditching players they could have easily retained just seems a little bit silly for a team not even six months removed from the precipice of greatness.

In total, the Rays lost 14 players either to retirement, trade or simply not having the dough to resign them. These players include: Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Gabe Kapler, Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza, among others.

So, things are going pretty disastrous, right? Not so fast. The Rays more than made up for it with their offseason acquisitions, and the best part is that they got some big-name players for cheap.

Of course, every sports book out there has the Rays pulling long shot odds to actually win the World Series, +3000 for a quick example, but Tampa Bay filled the holes it needed to fill and then some.

They grabbed Johnny Damon for a cheap $5 million for a year and got Manny Ramirez for an even cheaper $2 million. Pitchers like Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta should do well to shore up the rotation. And Sam Fuld and Chris Archer coming in for Matt Garza might work out better than expected.

All in all, the Rays are looking better than 20:1 to most people with a keen eye for baseball. The core of Tampa Bay’s lineup is still hungry for greatness, and Damon and Ramirez certainly love to strut their stuff against their former teams (Boston, New York).

The Red Sox and the Yankees will still undoubtedly be favorites to win the AL East and to take the Wild Card spot, but that’s to be expected. They’re big-market clubs who have also managed to improve their rosters. But to sleep on Tampa Bay isn’t a smart move. They’re small to mid-market style has turned this ballclub into a legitimate contender, and they certainly have a bone to pick with other teams around the league.

Sure, you’ll never see the Rays earn any respect until they actually win. Until then, they’ll get closer to video slots odds than legit baseball odds. But that’s okay. While everyone else is focusing on what the media darlings are doing, Tampa Bay can step up, take the division again, and knuckle-up in the playoffs to finally take home a World Series banner.

Let’s take a trip around the AL East newspapers as we try to find some of that 2008 magic…

The Boston Globe’s Tony Massarotti has the AL East going Yankees, Red Sox, Rays.  Shocker.  Not a lot of new stuff included, but I thought there was some clear homerism going on in this statement.

The Red Sox have an obvious vulnerability behind the plate – they allowed a preposterous 151 steals last year – but they may now be as good or better than the Rays at every other position on the diamond. All joking aside, the Red Sox defense looks terrific – as does that of the Rays.

Doesn’t Evan Longoria get an edge over most third basemen, including Adrian Beltre?  And, Carl Crawford is a pretty darn good left fielder.  That’s just two. 

***

I went looking at the Baltimore Sun for AL East previews.  Of course, there’s a lot on the Orioles.   And, there’s scouting reports on the Red Sox and Yankees.  But, best I could tell, nothing on the Rays.  Maybe that will come on Tuesday. 

***

Similar results in the New York Daily News from Mark Feinsand as he wrote his 28 reasons the Yankees will repeat.  #18 talked about the new look Red Sox.  But, the Rays aren’t worthy of a mention as anything that could even interrupt the Yankees from steamrolling through the East.

***

The New York Times’ Tyler Kepner has the Rays taking second in the AL East, which is good enough for the wild card.  Then he says they will beat the Angels and the Yankees in the playoffs before losing to the Colorado Rockies in the World Series. 

***

The Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin is a believer:

Granted, spring training is never the best time to get an accurate read on the regular season, but on the surface the Rays seem to have the type of young, dynamic offence that could carry them into the 90-plus win mix, vaulting them over either the Yankees or Bosox.

Just listing the names of the Rays’ offensive talents is scary. Start with 3B Evan Longoria, impending free-agent LF Carl Crawford, CF B.J. Upton, 1B Carlos Pena and 2B Ben Zobrist. If they get starting pitching at all, they will be a force to be reckoned with and a strong playoff contender.

***

And I end on this from Dave Sheinin in the Washington Post.

We feel sorry for the Rays. They’re using the equivalent of a slingshot against the nuclear arsenals of the Red Sox and Yankees. They fight valiantly, and they give themselves a chance. But a lower payroll means a smaller margin for error; more has to go right for them.

[picappgallerysingle id="2140096"] 

The roster appears set.  The Rays made their final bench decision today by selecting Reid Brignac over Hank Blalock.  The flexibility that Brignac gives really is a no brainer at this time.  And, there’s probably a decent chance that Blalock ends up in Durham.  He’s holding out hope that he can find a job in the Majors, but only the Marlins seemed a little bit interested before he signed with the Rays.

So, that brings us to Pat Burrell.  And, to some degree, Matt Joyce.

Basing this on the 2009 season and spring training, I can see a scenario where we hit May and Burrell is hitting sub-.200.  Then what?  At about that time, Matt Joyce should be ready to be activated from the disabled list.  And, Blalock could very well be down with the Bulls doing a fairly decent job swinging the bat.  Would the Rays be willing to cut bait with Burrell and swallow the remainder of his 2010 contract? 

As has been said all along, this is a make or break year for Tampa Bay.  They cannot afford to carry a non-hitting Burrell, even at his hefty price tag.  It would seem like they have several options to turn to at DH.  Willy Aybar certainly could handle the right-handed side of a platoon.  Blalock or Joyce the left.  Heck, the switch-hitting Aybar is probably already a better option without a platoon. 

It’s too bad that the Rays are strapped with Burrell’s contract.  They have to give him a chance to perform.  But, I hope the leash is short.  There are better options available to them.

[picappgallerysingle id="2297090"] 

Joel Sherman posted his 2010 predictions for 2010 awards this morning and the Rays figured prominently.  Evan Longoria is becoming a popular choice to win the MVP award.  In explaining his choice, Sherman almost sounds like he’s feeling guilty for not picking Joe Mauer.

For me, the most interesting tidbit from Sherman was his Cy Young writeup.  Felix Hernandez was his choice.  But, there’s this:

Tempted to pick Tampa’s Matt Garza, but he just might be A.J. Burnett 2.0, great stuff that never fully translates due to issues with pitching IQ and maturity.

Finally, both Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson get mentioned in the Rookie of the Year race, which Sherman gave to Baltimore’s Brian Matusz.

Who’s here today that won’t be here in February? Thankfully, the names are few.  Gabe Gross is gone.  Aki was traded.  Pretty much all else remained in place for the upcoming season.  And, that explains why we remain optimistic for the 2010 season.

Who do the Rays need to return to the playoffs?   The obvious answers were closer and catcher.  Both were addressed during the off-season.

What does the outfield look like next Spring?   Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are the anchors.  To this day, right field remains a bit of a question.  Matt Joyce will, most likely, open the season on the disabled list.  At this point, it would appear that the decision could very well be who Joe Maddon feels can play right field (or second base) better, Sean Rodriguez or Ben Zobrist.

Joe Maddon will be back. What about his coaches?  Steve Henderson was the only member of Maddon’s staff that was not asked to return for the 2010 season. This was after a productive season that saw several offensive records broken. But, Rays management pointed to the lack of timely hitting and poor production with runners in scoring position as the reason for the change.   Derek Shelton has received praise so far from Rays hitters.  Time will tell whether the Rays offense matches the 2009 production.

Have we seen the last of Aki?  Yep.  Aki turned into Jesse Chavez who ended up being Rafael Soriano.  That’s why Andrew Friedman is considered the top GM.

When will Desmond Jennings emerge? Jeremy Hellickson?  Both should emerge in here in St. Pete sometime in the 2010 season.  Hellickson has a better chance, but Jennings is a Crawford trade away from left field.

How much will the Yankees and Red Sox spend to keep the Rays away?   Randy Winn is in New York.  Nick Johnson is there.  And, Andy  Pettitte re-signed.  And, they traded for Curtis Granderson.  That’s the headlines in the Bronx.   Boston, on the other hand, took a more aggressive approach to free agency to improve for the upcoming season.  John Lackey was brought in to better the rotation.  And, Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre were brought in to shore up the defense moreso than to improve the offense.  It seems that the Red Sox feel they should follow the 2008 Rays model of success to win in 2010.

Attendance will always be a topic for ownership. How will 2009’s non-playoff ending impact season ticket renewals?  From all indications, season ticket renewals are down.  Not really a surprise, considering many people locked into 2009 season ticket packages as part of 2008 playoff tickets.

With the Twins in a new ballpark, will the Rays and the area feel more pressure to replace the Trop?  It’s as simple as ABC.  That’s the coalition report that made headlines throughout the off-season.  Will they pursue moving to Tampa?  Will they move to Toytown?  The politics of this story will continue for a long time to come.

Will the Rays finally identify a true closer?  Rafael Soriano is that guy.  As I said before, Aki became Jesse Chavez who became Rafael Soriano.  For the first time in a few years (discounting Troy Percival) the Rays have a bona fide closer.  We’ll see how that benefits them in 2010.

Tampa should be stronger at the end of games if Soriano performs up to expectations, but with the loss of Red Sox killer Akinori Iwamura and several other departures from their middle relief corps, the Rays don’t seem to have made up a considerable amount of ground on either the Red Sox or Yankees.

Looks like bulletin board material for me.  According to them, Aki was the key to this season.  That, and the departure of several middle relievers?  Will someone help me out with that?  I guess they are referring to the rejects that the Red Sox picked up.

So, if there’s anything from Stark’s piece that sums it up, it’s this:

By the way, this team also has Keith Law’s No. 7-ranked pitching prospect in baseball, Jeremy Hellickson, looming just over the horizon. So while this might not be as ballyhooed a rotation as the groups in Boston and the Bronx, if all these light bulbs go on at once, look out.

[picappgallerysingle id="5826747"]The major storyline for the spring camp will be the 2nd base/right field battle.  Where will Ben Zobrist end up?  I know the Rays have options at second base in Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac and in right field in Matt Joyce.  But, there remains one free agent that interests me. 

Felipe Lopez finished last season with a .310 batting average and a .386 OBP.  He hit over .300 vs. both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, so no need for a platoon.  He has a year of 44 stolen bases, so he has some speed and some Joe Maddon-esque skills. 

Felipe Lopez earned $3.5 million last year.  But, we are into spring training and he remains unsigned.  You have to figure his price tag is taking a hit.  According to yahoo.com, the Rays are not currently among four team entertaining interest in Lopez.  Maybe he becomes more appealing now that he has canned  uber-agent Scott Boras.

Win or else.  Felipe Lopez makes sense.  Stabilize the infield.  Anchor Zorilla in right field.    Owner Stuart Sternberg has said that 2010 is THE year.  Payroll will decline after this season.  If the Rays are playing “all in”, signing a veteran second baseman like Lopez makes sense. Last year, he hit .315 as a leadoff hitter, so he would give the Rays another option to top the batting order. 

If the Rays are going to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox, Felipe Lopez makes sense.  He would remove any question about the lineup and what it would look like on a daily basis.  If this is the year, sign this free agent and see where the Rays end up in the standings.